Polytomous logistic regression

In this paper a review will be given of some methods available for modelling relationships between categorical response variables and explanatory variables. These methods are all classed under the name polytomous logistic regression (PLR). Models for PLR will be presented and compared; model parameters will be tested and estimated by weighted least squares and by likelihood. Usually, software is needed for computation, and available statistical software is reported.
An industrial problem is solved to some extent as an example to illustrate the use of PLR. The paper is concluded by a discussion on the various PLR-methods and some topics that need a further study are mentioned.     

Options and efficiency: Some experimental evidence

This paper examines the information aggregation role of options when agents possess diverse information about possible asset returns. We construct two identical experimental markets: one with and one without options. We find that options speed the information aggregation process. Asset markets that have parallel option markets aggregate traders' diverse information faster than markets where options trading is not available. Implied ranges were calculated from asset and option prices and compared to the actual ranges. These comparisons suggest that options may provide a means for agents to coordinate beliefs about asset values.     

Inference Methods for Discretely Observed Continuous-Time Stochastic Volatility Models: A Commented Overview

In this paper an overview of inference methods for continuous-time stochastic volatility models observed at discrete times is presented. It includes estimation methods for both parametric and nonparametric models that are completely or partially observed in a variety of situations where the data might be nonlinear functions of the components of the model and/or contaminated with observation noise. In each case, the main reported methods are presented, making emphasis on underlying ideas, theoretical properties of the estimators (bias, consistency, efficient, etc.), and the viability of their implementation to solve actual problems in finance.     

The Influence of Role Models on Negotiation Ethics of College Students

Role models can be highly influential in conveying ethical standards. This study investigates the influence various categories of role models have had on a population of over 1,600 undergraduate students in Texas, Oregon and Michigan. Those identifying clergy, boy scout leaders, friends and college advisors as role models exhibited less willingness to adopt questionable ethical behavior in negotation situations. Journalist and spouse role models tended to cause students to be more accepting of questionable behavior. Individuals with strong end-result and social contract ethical philosophies, as well as males and those who served in the military exhibited strong tendencies toward less than ethical behavior. Individuals with strong rule ethical philosophy, high levels of religiousity, and those with a cooperative attitude in negotiations tended to adopt higher ethical standards in negotiations.     

A Disaggregated Econometric Model Based on Flexible Functional Forms

This paper introduces an econometric input—output model for Western Germany in a disaggregation of 12 commodities and sectors. The ‘Jorgenson’-type equilibrium model is based on flexible functional forms on the supply and on the demand side of the commodity markets. For intermediate demand, the relationship between the translog function and its special cases—the Cobb-Douglas function— is exploited. Prices and production are endogenized by market-clearing conditions. The fully integrated model also endogenizes capital accumulation, a rudimental govern-ment budget and income distribution, as well as wages and labour demand on rationed labour markets. The results of a dynamic ex post simulation show that the model is able to depict the sectoral economic development in Germany in the sample period from 1970 to 1986.     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

Closing the Canadian Input–Output Model: Homogeneous vs Non-homogeneous Household Sector Specifications

This paper addresses, on both theoretical and empirical fronts, the task of endogenizing the household sector in a rectangular input–output (IO) model. The formulation of Miyazawa (1976) for square models is extended to the development of an impact matrix for rectangular models. This allows for the numerous household revenue sources to be built into the model. A closed model with non-homogeneous households is developed where individuals are modelled individually and by industry. The perform ance of the non-homogeneous household sector model is compared with a model that has a homogeneous household sector. The model with the non-homogeneous household sector is more sensitive to changes in wages and salaries than to changes in final demand.     

基于Lee-Cater模型的养老保险个人账户缺口研究

鉴于个人账户计发月数未能体现持续的寿命延长,无论做实的个人账户还是处于空账状态的个人账户,个人账户的计发月数与实际支付月数的差异,都会使得实际支付远远超过个人账户实际或记账累积资金,同时账户资金的可继承性,将进一步扩大个人账户缺口。本文通过Lee-Ca-ter模型预测预期寿命的变化,研究死亡率改进对个人账户缺口的影响,以及死亡率和贴现率对个人账户缺口的共同作用。     

旅游扶贫发展的本质及其影响因素

＂贫困问题＂始终是一个世界性的难题,威胁着人类的生存与发展,而消除贫困是人类面临的共同任务。随着旅游业的蓬勃发展,它对社会经济的拉动作用逐渐凸显,人们逐渐开始把寻求解决贫困问题的目光投向旅游业,期望借助旅游业的带动作用找到解决贫困问题的方法。只有真切理解旅游扶贫发展的本质,在旅游扶贫发展实践中才会有的放矢。旅游扶贫发展的对象首先体现在旅游扶贫发展的目标地区方面,其次体现在旅游扶贫发展的目标人口方面。旅游扶贫发展在培育经济增长点,探索脱贫致富新路等领域具有积极意义,但是旅游扶贫发展作为一种特殊的开发、开放扶贫方式,它需要具备一定的发展因素。     

动机因素对大学生英语自主学习的影响

自主学习,作为现代外语教育的一个重要目标,在英语教学中受到越来越多的关注。从英语学习的情感因素角度出发,阐述了英语学习动机与自主学习之间的相关性,探讨了在大学阶段如何通过对学生学习动机的激发与维持,促进英语自主学习。